Written by Grace Agnew [sources]

PART 3

Response to terrorism will become more difficult, as terrorist technology becomes more sophisticated. Cyber terrorist attacks may occur from other countries, requiring cooperation among countries for detection and retribution. Most analysts expect increasing attacks by terrorists at the state and substate level on American soil. The United States, as a primary target of terrorists and international criminals, may experience a blurring of lines of authority among local and national security agencies such as the FBI, the police, and the armed forces, as the threats to American safety and security occur more and more frequently at home.

Forward-deployed troops and U.S. government outposts, such as embassies, will remain the most vulnerable targets at the start of the new millennium. It will become increasingly difficult, politically, to maintain active bases on foreign soil. Analysts Arquilla, Ronfeldt and Zanini recommend fewer active Air Force bases and more reliance on occupying dormant bases at point of need. (8)

At the international level, the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century expects that the scarce resources required for economic growth, particularly oil, will continue to be a cause of serious interstate tension. Analysts agree that the interconnectedness within and between countries, while providing great benefits for culture, education and commerce, also greatly increases vulnerability to attack. According to the Commission, "crucial transportation, health, sanitation, and financial systems are bound to become targets of the disgruntled, the envious, and the evil." (9)

Battlefield conflicts are also changing dramatically to accommodate the possibility that the enemy possesses a weapon of mass destruction, whether nuclear, biological or chemical. In past wars, mass was a critical issue, with a large, well-armed fighting force able to overwhelm a smaller enemy. In the 21st century, a massed fighting force risks total annihilation if a weapon of mass destruction is used. Unmanned weapons, space surveillance and weaponry, and information warfare will be critical for protecting U.S. troops from unacceptable casualties.

It will be critical to strike a crippling and decisive blow against an enemy with WMD capabilities, to forestall a counterattack with the potential to wipe out whole armies. Strategic, coordinated or simultaneous attacks (referred to as netwar, parallel war and hyperwar) will be used to gain immediate, decisive advantage over the enemy. These attacks require close coordination, accurate positioning and good communications, all of which require computers. Information warfare technologies will be indispensable on the modern battlefield but also vulnerable to espionage and attack.

Missiles, which can effectively deliver weapons of mass destruction across great distances, are seen by many analysts as one of the most serious threats to national security at the start of the 21st century. A strong theater missile defense system to detect and destroy missiles targeting U.S. territory and interests is seen by these analysts as critical for national security. According to analysts Grintner and Schneider, "Theater missile defense (TMD) is the long pole in the tent, the most important ingredient in any combination of changes needed to cope with such radical and well-armed regimes." (10)

The technology for perpetrating acts of terrorism and warfare has grown in sophistication, power and availability-information technology, conventional weaponry, as well as weapons of mass destruction. The Commission notes that we are "upping the ante to the point that a single mistake or a single act of sheer evil could leave a potentially fatal wound." (11)

Analysts differ on the weapons most likely to be used in terrorist attacks at the start of the new millennium. Some analysts believe that the gun and the bomb will remain the weapons of choice for terrorists, at least in the first years of the 21st century-popular due to wide availability, ease and familiarity of use, publicly-available components (e.g. fertilizer), and tremendous destructive power. Many midrange conventional weapons, such as rocket launchers, are increasingly available on the black market, due to the breakup of the Soviet Union. Most analysts predict increased use of information warfare, which puts the potential for severe societal disruption in the hands of individual actors. The U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century states that "biological weapons are the most likely choice of means for disaffected states and groups of the 21st century." (12). The Commission further asserts that "Americans will likely die on American soil, possibly in large numbers." (13)

The 21st century will be a millennium of increasing peril but also increasing possibility. The technologies that threaten our survival are the same technologies that successfully fight disease and prolong our life spans. The Internet technologies that make us vulnerable to one another also foster the spread of education, culture, commerce and communication throughout the globe, creating the possibility of a united world with shared goals and beliefs. At both the national and transnational level, government, private groups and individuals are coalescing into effective networks to defend against threats outside and within our borders.

The United States is no longer the naïve idealist that proclaimed each world war to be the last. Nonetheless, the optimism and ingenuity that are key components of American culture play a critical role in finding solutions to the problem of 21st century terrorism. There is no task more critical at the turn of the millennium for, as the Commission on National Security/21st Century concludes "A great nation that does not try to influence the future may end up as its victim." (14)